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It’s time – after much procrastination and with a healthy dose of prevarication – for the Bear to make his first prognostication of the likely Sebring grid.

Sebring and Petit Le Mans will  be different, not just in degree, but in kind, from the other races on the American Le Mans Series schedule in that they will run ACO classes to ACO class rules. That means that LMP-1 and 2, and GT-1 and 2 entrants will be required to adhere to the French club’s weight, restrictor, and aerodynamic rools for Le Mans, the Le Mans Series, and the Intercontinental Cup. The principle impact is to keep the prototype classes – such as they are – separated.

The new IMSA spec classes – LMP-C, and GT-C – will be allowed to compete alongside the “official” ACO-recognized racers (a version of LMP-C will also be allowed by the LMS this season).

Murphy has been given the best thinking, speculation, and inside knowledge of all his elves. That still leaves more than one ‘gap,’ but for now, here is the consensus of the Bear’s forest creature friends (aka elves).

LMP-P (Peugeot Class) – Barring a change of heart because of a lack of competition, Peugeot is in. Given they are the cause of no competition, having vetoed an ACO-accepted “interim” Audi, the Bear expects the Frogs to show. This is worse than Audi’s diesel domination, occurring years after the diesel advantage should have been resolved, and in a race in which competition (Audi) was possible, but rejected due to Peugeot’s narrow self-interest and the lack of balls in Georgia. The Frogs will score a meaningless – perhaps Pyrrhic – victory. One of the Bear’s elves took exception to that, writing “There are no meaningless wins at Sebring.” Murphy sees his point, and agrees given Sebring’s historic place in racing, so he’ll put it this way: If the political leverage of an entrant could render Sebring less than it should be, this is it. If the current care-takers of this race – ALMS/IMSA – had a sense of its importance (much greater than their own) they’d at least strongly protest. Audi could seize the moral high ground here, of course, by “facilitating” a Kolles entry (or two) of the R10 – a driver or two, a bit of engineering, etc., etc. – things they did with Champion.

LMP-1 – With the French diesels in their own race, LMP-1 is mostly left to privateers, three of which are confirmed or certain (Intersport, Drayson, and Autocon) one “maybe” (Corsa), and two “when hell freezes over”: Creation and an unidentified, but rumored, Lola Aston Martin (the latter having gone to a collector, according to the Bear’s best sources). Murphy leans toward expecting only the three currently “confirmed” privateer entries to make the Sebring grid. The Bear’s heard that Oreca may return to North America with a Sebring entry of its AIM-powered 01. What? Not the Peugeot 908 they have agreed to race in the LMS and alongside the factory entries at Le Mans? Not according to Murphy’s source, leaving the Bear scratching his furry head. He’ll rate this one just “possible.” That still leaves his likely LMP-1 (exclusive of diesels) entry at three.

LMP-2 – These will be the best of then non-diesel entries (again proving that absent artificially slowing these guys down, the prototype world is upside down). Highcroft, Dyson, and Cytosport will enter an Acura, Lola-Mazda, and Porsche Spyder each. Any or all of the three could enter a second car; Murphy’s odds on that are Highcroft 4-1 against, Dyson 2-1 (an elf rates this probable), and Cytosport 3-2, the latter’s better odds based on rumor of a direct interest by Porsche in adding a Spyder to a race they could well win overall (if the Peugeots find trouble along the way). A rumored OAK Racing Pescarolo falls into the Bear’s infamous “when hell freezes over,” category. On balance then, Murphy thinks we might end up with (figuring, in his usual optimistic way, that one of the “big three” will be able to field a second car) four total LMP-2 entries.

Total “legitimate” prototypes on the grid will be nine.

GT-1 – Won’t be any.

GT-2 – (Except for Sebring and Petit, just “GT”) Corvette will be there, as will BMW, Porsche and Ferrari, each represented by a sort-of-quasi-more-or-less-factory team, Pratt & Miller for Corvette, Rahal Letterman Racing for BMW, Flying Lizards for Porsche, and Risi Competizione for Ferrari. Of those the “less” in terms of factory participation/support Ferrari, and the “more” is Corvette. Those “premier” teams account for 7 entries, and are “confirmed.” Also certain-to-be on hand are three more Ferraris (2 Sharp’s Extreme team, and 1 AF Corse), a Falken Porsche, and a Robertson Ford. Some of the elves count Rocket Sport’s Cat as a sure thing, but the Bear isn’t entirely convinced. There have been rumors of significant (and expensive) homologation problems. He’ll call it “probable.” The Black Swan Porsche is a “maybe” – Murphy thinks there’s an even chance they’ll land in GT Challenge instead. There’s rumor of an unidentified Porsche floating around, too ephemeral to get above “doubtful” in the Bear’s pantheon. Twelve, then, one probable, two less likely. Taken together, perhaps 13 starters?

So, before we get to the spec/club racer specials, the Sebring field totals just 22.

The field filler doesn’t add much – aesthetically or numerically. In LMP Challenge, four are “possible,” but only one (Intersport) is “confirmed” thus far, and even in that case the Bear’s waiting for the Ohio team to name a second driver-with-a-budget. (Murphy’s heard Richard Berry has finally sold his Lola and assorted parts to the Fields, however.) None of the others (Comprent, Genoa, and Gunnar) can be considered to be firm entries; two of three would seem likely. Three on the grid, then.

GT Challenge? That’s an interesting question. Remember this class is made up of racers that originally set out to do a few short sprints in a one-driver, one-make series. Sebring’s 12 hours is a huge jump. Murphy’s been told to expect something closer to the low side of an entry rumored to be between 5 and 9. Other imput – from an “insider” – says the self imposed limit of 10 will be fully subscribed. Professional prevaricator he is, the Bear will go with 7.

So there you have it. Twenty-two cars based on last year’s classes – the structure we’ve had for about a decade. Add the “new stuff,” (field filler of little interest, at least to Bears) and you’ve got 32; just one more than the Bear predicted about this time in 2009. Only 26 actually started that 2009 race – Murphy told you he’s the eternal optimist. Whether the “filler” keeps the 58th Annual 12 Hours of Sebring from being a disaster is an individual judgment. The Bear knows what he thinks.

Around the Paddock

With a lousy ALMS entry anticipated, the potential for a strong LMS entry is striking. What gives? Is the economy worse here than in Europe? (Not really.) Is the ALMS’ “green” initiative hurting rather than helping (Their European cousins are still promoting great racing, so probably.) Does the North American sports car endurance “split” continue to hurt? (Undoubtedly, according to European Car’s motorsport editor in its January issue, “Something’s gotta give, as the saying goes. As CART and the IRL have shown, nothing lasts forever. Both GA and the ALMS have seen their grid numbers fall considerably… Insiders expect both series to chug along but eventually the bottom line will force the issue.”)

The Bear hears rumblings of infighting amongst the Braselburgers, undoubtedly symptomatic of declining fields and finances, particularly in critical television-related revenues (including “wrap-around” contracts with manufacturers).

The new guy in charge of IMSA rools side of things is riling teams and others over what’s to be done with/to prototypes in 2010. Not just disagreement with content, but failure to consider teams’ input, and now delay in getting the rools settled.

There’s growing disaffection amongst Sebring fans with the stewardship of Sebring in recent years. The ACO marginalized its importance in regard to Le Mans by selecting its field before the Florida classic’s green flag. With its preoccupation with being green, logos, and cute lights in the sides of cars, the ALMS has presided over a steady decline in Sebring fields. That will be just one of the things that bites its butt in this and coming seasons.

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Tags: ACO, Acura, ALMS, Black Swan, BMW, Comprent, Corvette, Creation, Cytosport, Dyson Racing, Falken, Ferrari, Flying Lizard Motorsports, Genoa, Gunnar Racing, Highcroft, IMSA, Intercontinental Cup, Intersport, Kolles, LMS, Mazda, Oreca, Peugeot, Porsche, Rahal Letterman Racing, Richard Berry, Risi Competizione, Robertson Racing, Rolex 24, Sebring

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 6th, 2010 at 1:02 am and is filed under Paddock Poop. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.