Audi  was running at Sebring this week. According to the best minds that analyze such things (Mulsanne Mike, for instance), the 2012 R18 really quite a different car than last year’s R18. Hopefully, the changes will improve the outward vision. A pal of a friend of the Bear drove the R18 a couple of months ago, and reported an “absolute blind spot out of the right hand side.” “It explains the McNish crash at Le Mans,” he said.

In other news from the Bear’s Chief European Correspondent, Romain Dumas is headed back to Porsche soon, there’s a big tug of war over Timo Bernhard, and Oliver Pla was quick at a secret Peugeot test.

Insiders in Europe believe ALMS will have Audi, Mercedes, and perhaps others not fully homologated by the ACO in some form of local GT class – but it’s unclear when that gets done.

The ALMS Field

The American Le Mans Series LMP1 and LMP2 fields, are slowly getting sorted out. In the premier class, it looks like Dyson will field two cars, though we don’t know yet who provides the second. It could be Humaid al Masaood again, or it could be someone else. A third entry seems a stretch, but remains possible. Cytosport is committed, but it now appears likely Mike Lewis’ Autocon partners won’t be able to save the entry and are looking for rides with others. The likely outcome for the class appears to be about what we had last season: two Dyson and one Muscle Milk prototypes.

LMP2 will be a bit stronger (that’s an ursine joke) than it was in 2011. Level 5 is reported to be a two-car entrant. Readers don’t have to be reminded that was last season’s expectation, too. Murphy’s is thus restrained in his excitement for Level 5 in 2012. Rumor has Newman Haas in the field, but if anyone’s seen any firm evidence, give a “holler.” The firmest entries appear to be Conquest and Black Swan. The Bear expects to see at least two LMP2 entries at every event, and as many as five at a few.

LMPC has six confirmed entries. None of those include Intersport, whose drivers and team employees seem to have fled to new team BAR 1 Motorsports, which the Bear believes is a probable entry. For those concerned with this and other LMPC teams obtaining funding, Murphy reminds you that in this class the drivers are the funding. With one more possible, the prototype Challenge class will be s-8 in 2012.

GT will struggle to reach 10 entries this season. The Lizards will return to try to recapture the hardware they believe they deserve – with some justification – every year. Extreme Speed is likely, but has one foot in Grand Am, and that might extend past Daytona. Falken is back and expecting to improve on  its 2011 – which will make it a contender for some of that end-of-season bling. BMW wants a splash for its M3 ahead of its motorsports reorganization that will put that venerable racecar into DTM and hand the keys to GT/sports car racing to the Z4. Corvette has had a disappointing start to its GT(2) program, but is always in the mix (if not mixing it up). Driver changes are in the offing, primarily driven by a desire to provide more stable factory driver support to privateer Corvette teams in Grand Am and around the world. As the Bear tweeted, Antonio will take a full-time seat. Expect Olivier Beretta to be full time with Jack Laconte’s Larbre Racing. Other Corvette Racing drivers will moonlight at Grand Am’s “major” events (Daytona, the Glen, Indy), but will not routinely partner in Grand Am DP and GT entries as they did last year. Grand Am teams are demanding “dedicated” drivers, and to the extent it can, the KGeneral is obliging. The Bear believes the other three Corvette “regulars” – Gavin, Magnussen, and Milner – are set, though there’s been a bit of rumble around a Magnussen move.

The winter’s most popular parlor game has been “Where’s Risi?” in which players try to come up with the most convoluted 2012 racing solutions for America’s premier Ferrari team. A kind of “Where’s Waldo?” for Ferrari fans. 2011 wasn’t a good season for the Houston team, and they’ve responded with some big changes, including substantial personnel turnover. Included in that is driver Jaime Melo, who won’t be back. The early season is pretty well fixed. Risi will field two new 458’s at the Rolex 24 Hours at Daytona in January, replacing one previously entered under the Ferrari of Ft. Lauderdale name (you didn’t fall for that little ruse, did you?), then one at Sebring in March. It’s not so certain after that, but some Waldo players are putting their chips on Grand Am. In the end, the only player who counts is Guiseppe, and he hasn’t shown his hand – yet.  There was momentary excitement, a kind of ripple in the force, when Canadian Scott Maxwell a journeyman driver at best, tweeted that he’d landed a drive with Aston Martin. ALMS was the assumption, the hope being it portended another GT entry; Grand Am’s Continental series with Multimatic’s Aston Martin Vantage is the reality.

Grand Am

Grand Am unveiled the Corvette-bodied Daytona Prototype, the first of its new “DP3’s”. Its initial pace at Daytona wasn’t very impressive, lagging behind the DP2’s. Was it just new car teething? Sandbagging? At the time the Bear dismissed its importance, but then heard differently. The Corvette is seriously slow, unable to crack 190 anywhere on the DIS layout. There might be some other “good news,” though, in that a rumored an insurer is weighing in with a desire for slower top ends. That will give the series “cover” to slow everyone else down without it looking like a blatant move to put the Corvette in the game. Murphy guesses that no “balancing” will be quite enough, however, so he’s putting his money on Ganassi Racing to dominate in 2012, just as it did in 2011, 2010…

Scheduling Struggles

While Grand Am announced a 2012 schedule with not much fuss (though it did add its Lime Rock date later), the American Le Mans Series has struggled to pin its calendar down. Not all of that has been the fault of the Braselburgers, the comedies at Baltimore and Texas being the principal culprits, with the ACO’s June big black hole blowing out any chance to get Detroit. It does demonstrate the lack of options the series has been left with, however.

Bernie and Red finally settled their differences, confirming Austin for November, but not before a self-imposed construction delay. The result of that is the ALMS date remains unannounced, its early October date in limbo – for now, at least – pending some assurance the track will actually be complete enough to host a “trial” date ahead of the F1 circus.  Meanwhile, as if the current Baltimore (9/1) to PLM (10/20) gap isn’t enough, the Keystone Kops routine in Charm City has left that event with empty coffers and a $12 million debt. It has just two weeks to remedy that situation. Someone is going to have to come up with some serious cash or it’s buh-by to Baltimore. Necessarily, another Braseburg Two-Step – or perhaps a Cotton Eyed Joe – is underway, the dance partner this time being Virginia International Raceway, Murphy tweeting on December 7 that talks were underway, and AutoWeek chiming at about the same time. No announcement has been forthcoming, though, so as it stands now, the ALMS calendar could well have two gaps, eight weeks from May 12 to July 7, and nine weeks from August 18 (Road America), to October 20 (Road Atlanta).

There are real concerns about Bahrain’s appearance on both the F1 and WEC calendars. Regardless of the insistence by the FIA, ACO, and Bernie that everything is just hunky-dory, a bomb outside the British Embassy and rioting on the Pearl Roundabout doesn’t exactly contribute to any confidence amongst observers that either event will – or should – take place. More than 35 people have died in clashes and protest-related violence since February. Bahrain’s protests are the largest and most sustained to have hit the Arab monarchies and sheikdoms that line the Persian Gulf. There hasn’t been much progress on reforms promised after the February-March protests, contributing continued protests and clashes with security forces as recently as Thursday this week.  Murphy is among many who think that both Bahrain race dates are questionable at best. The status of its putative replacement makes the dropping of Petit Le Mans as a round of the World Endurance Championship a real head scratcher, doesn’t it? There’s good new in this for the civilized world (lately that doesn’t seem to include much ground between the Mediterranean Sea and Delhi). If Bahrain’s WEC round is cancelled, where does that series go? If the FIA and ACO get their act together before March’s Sebring opener, perhaps Petit Le Mans is back. Otherwise, probably just a hole in the schedule between Japan and China.

The Andy Lally Challenge

At Murphy’s last report, the American  Le Mans Series field had already closed out its 2011 with a total of $1,795,000 paid to all competitors.

When we last left Andy Lally, he had six races remaining on the Sprint Cup schedule, and he unfortunately struggled to the finish. For Sprint Cup’s Rookie of the Year, leading a lap at Talladega might have been a highlight, but his race ended in an accident after 162 laps in 39th place, with a purse of $81,300. In the previous race, at Charlotte, a brake problem ended his race after just 20 laps, but the 42nd spot still paid $64,825. At Martinsville, Hermie Sadler filled in, as he had earlier in the season, but then Andy bounced back for a finish in 29th and a $101,475 purse at Texas Motor Speedway. That was it for the season; Andy failed to qualify at Phoenix, and Mike Bliss drove at Homestead in the season’s final race. The $246,800 earned in three races in which Andy drove brought his season total winnings to $2,865,656. That final total almost doubled the earnings of the entire American Le Mans Series field for 2011, and brings the Bear’s Andy Lally Challenge to a close.

Kevin Buckler’s No. 71 entry gave up the 35th spot in owner’s points at Talladega to Bob Jenkins and was unable to gain it back. Buckler’s driver, whether Andy or someone else, will start next season having to qualify to make the grid.

The Bear wishes you all a Happy Christmas and a Wonderful 2012.

Murphy H. Bear

Honda Takes a Powder

Honda’s North American sports car racing program has passed on, the agonizing seppuku of its dying finally ended with one final swift stroke of the kaishaku. The beginning of the end that was announced today was in 2009 when three Acura-supported teams were cut lose. In 2010, the Acura brand was replaced by the HPD non-brand, and reduced to a single LMP2 entry. A tentative 2011 plan with token support, limited to Highcroft field trips to Sebring and Le Mans, was ended today.

Will Honda continue to develop and support the LMP2 V6? Will it simply transfer the center of gravity of its sports car racing to Europe? It’s clear it’s done paying for chassis, and equally so any significant engine program – the V6 is a half-hearted effort, at best. And it is very, very clear – even before this announcement – that Honda is not interested in the American Le Mans Series.

Taken in isolation, Honda’s departure is bad enough, but a wider survey of manufacturer’s plans, some announced, some rumored, should worry sports car racing fans around the globe.

RIP Wankel

Mazda will make radical cuts to its racing budget for 2012, something Murphy reported via Twitter on May 5. Now he’s learned a bit more. With the Wankel finally headed into the dustbin of history, the Grand Am GT program is in its last season, but Murphy hears Mazda North America likes McDreamy’s marketing value, so much so that it has contracted the development of an entirely new turbo 4 cylinder for the TV doctor’s step up to LMP2 in the Intercontinental Le Mans Cup in 2012. So a McDreamy Mazda skips the ALMS’ minor events in favor of the big show with just two North American appearances. The Bear’s 64 dollar question: does Mazda continue its other turbo 4 program, the branded AER motor used by Dyson Racing? Or does Dyson have to move to the new engine to stay in ALMS prototypes with Mazda?

Datsun and Toyoda

Two engine programs burst onto the scene this year, exciting fans hungry for any good news, particularly since these companies fielded the R390 and GT One not so many years ago. Not to be a wet blanket, but the Bear thinks there is less here than meets the eye. Both appear to be doing little more than attempting to squeeze a little marginal revenue out of existing 3.4 liter V8 motors developed for the All-Japan Super GT series – Nissan’s from the Skyline GT-R, and Toyota by its Cologne, Germany-based group for the Lexus SC430. Neither appears to be headed into sports car racing as anything more than engine suppliers with limited budgets, and neither seems to have any plans to participate in the American Le Mans Series. For Nissan in particular, be some pressure in the past two years for racing in North America seems to have largely dissipated in the face of ambivalence from Japan and a “beleaf” the future of racing is electric.

The Four Rings

No, not J.R.R. Tolkien, but the Decade’s Lords of Le Mans. Audi NA decided three years ago a North American LMP racing program was not a good marketing investment. It subsequently proved that by the results it measured after diverting those millions to other advertising.

It’s rumored that Audi AG wants to take a controlling stake in an existing F1 team, something it could do easily at a cost not much more than its on-going prototype program. If it does, instead of old prototypes moldering in a museum, its investment would give it hundreds of millions in F1 concorde distributions, the continuing revenue of an engineering business, and in one rumored case, leadership in flywheel KERS systems. All-in-all not a bad exchange.

And F1 adventure would be the end of campaigning the R18, except for Le Mans; otherwise Audi will continue in the ILMC. There is no possibility of returning to a full ALMS schedule.

Porsche and Peugeot

Murphy doesn’t know if Porsche will step into the gap left if Audi leaves ACO’s prototype ranks, as has been rumored. On balance, what he hears leads him to conclude it will not; the lucrative GT business is just too good not to remain the core of Porsche Motorsport. In any case, if there is a Porsche prototype it seems certain – like Peugeot – to compete in the ILMC events, and not contest the ALMS. The French will continue in the ILMC and at Le Mans for the “service life” of the current 908. Neither Porsche nor Peugeot will contest a full ALMS schedule.

Grand Am

As the Bear noted above, Grand Am GT will be without Mazda next season. Unfortunately Murphy hears there are bigger problems than that. Things aren’t improving in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup. It should be a wake-up call that Clint Bowyer may be done for lack of sponsorship in weeks, maybe sooner.

Teams and others in the NASCAR family are again pressuring Jim France to focus on the company’s premier series, questioning the “diversion” of resources to the “house” road racing series. We’ve been down this road before, but then it was in a context in which Sprint Cup’s weakness was largely seen as recession-caused, and would recover quickly as soon as the economy improved. That’s simply not happening, as anyone looking at the grandstands at Dover Sunday could readily see. What the recession (yes, business and employment is recovering, albeit very slowly) did do was break the love affair between corporate America and racing sponsorships. It’s hitting NASCAR, and has hit road racing much harder.

What does that mean to Grand Am? In the near term, it means that if purse increases recently discussed on International Speedway Boulevard happen, it will require contractions elsewhere, likely to Jim’s support of DP teams, including those “captive” or nearly so, to the France largess. (It was a chuckle at VIR that the “Beat Chip Bounty” was paid from one France pocket to another.)

Further out, Murphy can see a loss of momentum in the transformation of the series and particularly of the Daytona Prototype. However, the Bear isn’t as convinced as some that the “new look” will fall short. After all, a few inches here and there can account for the difference between a Ford and a Ferrari. We won’t know how these cars look until we actually see a car, or at least a to-scale drawing. But lessening financial backing will increase the series’ fear of driving away current entries by forcing too large an investment in new hardware. Similarly, new entries – Ferrari and others – in GT will increase cost by raising the bar for current competitors, again reducing entries. All that will likely make Grand Am more timid in implementing the changes that sports car fans (the traditional kind) have wanted to see in the Grand Am product.

Proposed DP Revisions

We always knew that the (cash) impact on current participants of new DP rules would be minimized, didn’t we? It’s a consequence of having “cheap” as your principal product attribute.

With that in mind, the kinds of changes – mostly bodywork – floated last week weren’t a surprise. Those who are critical might consider that it really does take only an inch here and there to hugely impact appearance. Consider that this look was achieved largely by raising the sidepod profile without any greenhouse reduction at all.

Bounties

With Grand Am paying the $25 grand bonus to itself, the only out-of-pocket payment was the $25 put up by Magnus for beating Bill Auberlen and Turner Motorsports (who none-the-less again landed on the GT podium).

The “Best television coverage in racing”

(As odd as it may now seem, that’s quote from a “State of the Series” presentation at a previous Petit Le Mans.) In a press release announcing the promotion of an underling, the ALMS confirmed the departure of Senior Vice President of Television Production Services John Evenson. He’ll “remain as a consultant to the series.” Pretty soon the series will have more “consultants” than employees. Murphy told his Twitter readers Evenson was shown the door at close of business Friday. The Braselburgers get credit for hiring Miss 12 Hours of Sebring 2008 in the same week.

The most important fans – the ones that bother with such things as forums – had been telling the series almost from the beginning that its television package was terrible. It chose not to listen.

Media Mogul Moves

Don’t be surprised if News Corp. makes a move to acquire the F1 commercial rights.

GRT

Generic Racing Team launched a website last week, then quickly shut it down. The prime suspect called Kevin and pled “Not Guilty.” The NASCAR brass was publically peeved, but privately amused. The search for a disgruntled former employee with advanced website design skills continues…

ALMS Prototype Summary

Muscle Milk will complete the season, as will one Dyson Lola AER (Mazda).

A Dyson second car announcement remains possible.

Autocon is “in” beginning at Mosport, though the “new direction” stuff is a bit overblown – same car, same motor, same drivers, some reorganization of the “partnership,” car upkeep moved to a new shop. No, it did not get “significant upgrades” at Lola.

It seems Intersport will “Field” an LMPC – but no LMP1 or 2.

If they can get the AMR One to run, Aston Martin will make a single ALMS foray, at Laguna Seca, in addition to the Petit Le Mans ILMC round.

Tucker will campaign one LMP2 for the remainder of the ALMS schedule.

Murphy’s seen no evidence that Signature has a car, or an engine, or a crew. (When they do, perhaps they’ll be kind enough to post a photo? Even Solo Al was able to do that.) The team says it’s in the “re-evaluating” mode. It’s getting a little late for this season, isn’t it?

Most likely ALMS (non-ILMC) LMP1/2 entry: Lime Rock 3, Mosport 4, Mid-Ohio 4, Road America 4, Baltimore 3, Monterey 5.

Oklahoma!

Still a Rodgers and Hammerstein musical, but not yet a racing event. The “announcement” did not announce an event, but a promoter’s intent to get an event approved. The mayor is for it, the state is for it, yadda, yadda…but no mention of the OKC council, which defeated it last year. With a hoops playoff underway, auto racing isn’t even close to the community’s consciousness.

South America for the ILMC?

They’re floating the idea, along with an assumed constraint of seven (and no more than eight) events, including Le Mans. Drop one of the three European events? Perhaps, but most of the entries are from that continent. It seems equally likely that North America will lose one of its two, doesn’t it?

Andy Lally Update

Andy failed to qualify at Darlington, but won $80,825 at Richmond, and $88,875 at Dover for GRT, er..TRG, which brings his season winnings to $1,020,811. The entire American Le Mans field has won $1,093,000, less $173,000 withheld, the total due to participants to date is $920,000. Teams that have been classified as “factory,” or “factory supported” are not paid purse money. The next privateer(s) does/do not “move up.”  The Bear has already credited the privateer bonus fund that will actually be paid after the season. That may also not reach the $540,000 he has allowed, in which case the total will be adjusted downward as necessary.

Murphy’s Rolex Punting Rools

1. Riley only. The first non-Riley in 2008 was 15th. In 2009, a Dallara snuck into 4th, a Crawford into 8th. Last year, the oil maggot got his Lola into 4th and Wayne, Ricky, Max and Pedro dragged a Dallara into 6th for NASCAR’s favorite bankers. That’s marginal improvement, but not enough to change the rool.

2. Teams you’ve heard of. Ganassi won its third in a row in 2008, another of Murphy’s teams,  Brumos, won in 2009 – and took third, too. Action Express won last year, and you might be scratching your head, but even the barely sentient knew that was the Brumos gang with the Godfather’s money.

3. No oil (or Silicon Valley venture capital) billionaire drivers, no scrawny girls. The scrawny girl’s a no-show; the capitalist is slower than the oil maggot, but stays on the track.  No drivers with the same name as the team. The Bear’s rule has been no brain doctors or heart doctors, but this year the Murphy’s going with Starworks anyway, because he likes Peter, and Peter invited him to lunch. Hey, you didn’t really think there was no graft in this stuff, did you? Still, you better be a pro – or close to the pace – to win this thing. Yes, the oil billionaire was 4th last year, but that’s still not the podium. The Bear didn’t say anything about racing empire trust fund boys, though.

Rolex Picks for Punters

So, here are Murphy’s picks. Both Ganassi entries – the Bear hasn’t taken leave of his senses (stuffing or not). Starworks fields four pretty good drivers, you’d think  they’d be able to carry one neurosurgeon, especially one that styles himself as “the world’s fastest” (see also reference to graft, above). Action Express won the last one of these, and well, J.C. is no brain surgeon, is he? GAINSCO? The Bear picks them every year and it seems they bag it about half way. Someday, they’re going to figure this race out, like the two-time champions have long since figured out the rest of the schedule.

01 Ganassi  Hand, Rahal, Pruett, Rojas – BMW / Riley
02 Ganassi  Dixon, Franchitti, Montoya, McMurray  – BMW / Riley
  8 Starworks  Braun, Dalziel, Enge, Forest, Lowe – Ford / Riley
  9 Action Express  Barbosa, Borcheller, Fittipaldi, Papis, France – Porsche / Riley
99 GAINSCO  Fogarty, Gurney, Johnson  – Chevrolet / Riley

Murphy’s “dark horse” is Michael Shank Racing. They’ve been ignored by the Bear, but last year flirted with the podium. If they were a Riley again, they’d have made the “Bear’s Five,” but their real “pro car” is a Dallara. The No. 6 could be the first non-Riley to crack the podium in many years. And the other Shank car, No. 23? Martin and Mark are heavy lifters, but Zak’s too heavy even for them.

GT with the Bear

Last year, for the first time, the Bear decided it was time to pay some attention to the GT field. So, what are Murphy’s GT rools?

The Rools

1. At least 3 pros to carry a weekender. If so, doctors and CEOs are O.K. here.

2. Teams with experience and talent. Some of these are easy to pick out: TRG and Turner Motorsports, for instance. Others aren’t so obvious.

3. Current or former ‘factory’ drivers. They don’t go – or aren’t sent – where they have no chance.

In 2010, the Bear’s picks were all German – four Porsches and a BMW. This time the colonies are represented with a pair of Camaros to go with two Porsches and that same Bimmer. (Ok, the Bimmer is an “M3” this time – just like the last one was an “M6.”)

48 Paul Miller Bell, Miller, Sellers, Sugden – Porsche GT3
57 Stevenson Bremer, Liddell, Magnussen  – Camaro GT.R
59 Brumos Davis, Haywood, Keen, Lieb – Porsche GT3
88 Autohaus Lester, Marsh, O’Connell, Taylor – Camaro GT.R
94 Turner Auberlen, Dalla Lana, Plumb, Said – BMW M6

Three TRG entries, 54, 66, and 67 look good and nicely fit Murphy’s rool about factory drivers with Pilet, Luhr, and Henzler, but the Bear’s concerned the pros (who also include Bleekemolen, Farnbacher, Lally, and Pumpelly) are diluted too far with those weekenders. With more teams fielding more drivers, there are more and more unknowns and many more bankers, surgeons, actors, and trust fund kids in the GT field. It’s getting to be more of a crap shoot than ever to pick a winner. Is the stuffed one foolish to stay away from the Mazdas? Who knows. Crap shoot.

00 Aten Motorsports Ferrari is the Bear’s GT dark horse. Collard and Pompidou are quality pros, as good as anyone on the grid, Davy Jones isn’t quite his former self (who is?), but he’ll keep it in the hunt. Abergel and McCutchen are good as weekenders go. If the race can be won on smarts by a car the factory would like to see go away, this is your long shot.

Tommy Gets the Gig

Murphy was the only one back in December, and today Team Corvette made it official, Tommy Milner will be the full-schedule replacement for Johnny O’Connell. Nice work, Turbo Tom.

Where are They?

Back in July, Grand Am’s Dave Spitzer (not the Bear) wrote in a memorandum to teams:

Audi R8
We are in advanced discussions with Audi surrounding the possible introduction of the R8 in Rolex GT.

Ferrari 458
Discussions are underway to introduce a version of this car for Rolex GT competition.

Other GT3 cars – Mercedes, BMW, etc.
We are in early discussions with these brands to include versions of their GT3 cars in Rolex GT also.

Snag Somewhere? Smokin’ sumpin’? Whatever, the Bear is wondering if an opportunity has been lost, given Grand Am has exclusive rights to sports car endurance channel surfers in the 2011 season. Build them sumpin’ and they’ll come. Zoom, Zoom aside, Mazdas don’t qualify as sumpin’ – Ferraris and Audi R8’s do.

The big trick in business is to find something exciting before someone else does, then promote the hell out of it. It doesn’t matter if you’re in the cute little phone biz or the sportycar racin’ biz. The Braselburgers haven’t figured that out, so the Bear was hoping the World Center had. Not so sure now.

Atlas, Panoz, Autocon, and Lou

It’s kind of like the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon. Atlas eFX can’t do an Abruzzi deal (Murphy thinks no one, no where, no how, no time will), so buys Lou’s ALMS Corvette for the ILMC, and Tomy Drisi signs on to drive, materially reducing the chance that we’ll see very much of Autocon in the ALMS.

For the third year, the Bear’s picking five entries likely to contend for the win in the Rolex 24 at Daytona. In 2008, his list of five captured 1, 2, and 3. Last year, they grabbed the top two steps.

Before he picked, Murphy gave away the five rools that will let his friends pick the Daytona Prototype winners, too. Not much has changed, so here they are again:

1. Riley only. The first non-Riley in 2008 was 15th. Last year, a Dallara snuck into 4th, a Crawford into 8th. That’s not enough to change the rool.
2. Teams you’ve heard of. Ganassi won its third in a row in 2008, another of Murphy’s teams,  Brumos won in 2009 – and took third, too. Ganassi was second and fifth, Penske sixth, GAINSCO seventh. The Bear didn’t mention SunTrust, which was fourth; they’ll replace the departed Penske among our picks. Murphy thinks “nicely turned out” counts for a lot. It’s a team that does that.
3. No oil billionaire drivers, no scrawny girls. No drivers with the same name as the team. No brain doctors or heart doctors. In other words, absent an LMS-type ‘gentleman driver rool’ DP is a “pro only need apply” class.

Rolex Favorites

The Bear had no trouble picking four, but his fifth turn out to be ‘a bear,’ so to speak. After Ganassi (2), GAINSCO, and Brumos, it came down to SunTrust Racing, a familiar (and successful) team (see rool 2.) but with a Dallara (rool 1.). It was the SunTrust Dallara that snuck into 4th last year, too. On the other hand, there’s Action Express Racing, a “rookie” team (that runs afoul of rool 2.), while meeting rool 3. (drivers), and rool 1. What to do? The elves told the Bear it was time to do a little research.

A little digging uncovered that Action Express is the ‘second Brumos entry,’ owned by long-time Brumos associate Bob Johnson, with a number Brumos staff and crew, and with drivers Barbosa and Borcheller. So, with good leadership, it might meet rool 2. after all. SunTrust’s 4th was a break-through for the non-Riley Dallara, three of four drivers return – Ricky Taylor (son of team owner Wayne) replaces veteran gentleman Brian Frisselle. Is that an improvement? Was last season’s Dallara break-through a trend or an aberration?

Here are Murphy’s by-the-rools five favorites for the 2010 Rolex. Last year we asked if this ‘Looked familiar?’ This year, it’s ‘Look familiar – again?’

01 Ganassi  Papis, Wilson, Pruett, Rojas – BMW / Riley
02 Ganassi  Dixon, Franchitti, Montoya, McMurray  – BMW / Riley
  9 Action Express Barbosa, Borcheller, Dalziel, Rockenfeller – Porsche / Riley
59 Brumos Donohue, Haywood, Law, Leitzinger, Matos – Porsche / Riley
99 GAINSCO   Fogarty, Gurney, Johnson, Vasser – Chevrolet / Riley

If anything, Ganassi is fielding even better driver lineups. Brumos returns without the drug felon, and with Leitzinger and Matos – a huge upgrade in talent (and sense) if a Bear ever saw one. Two-time Grand Am champion GAINSCO returns with drivers as good as anyone – intent on capturing the prize that’s eluded them. Action Express – as we’ve explained – is ‘Brumos Lite’ with a better roster of pilots.

Murphy makes SunTrust his “dark horse.” Level 5 having morphed into NPN Racing might have made the Bear’s favorites list, until Tucker, the designated rich guy, listed himself in both cars, diluting otherwise stellar driving lineups. If you can figure out which car will not get Tucker’s driving help, pick the other one.

Taking a Flyer on GT with the Bear

The Bear decided it’s time to pay some attention to the GT field. Just in time for the faux Mazdas to drop from contention, now having fallen to second tier teams and too many otherwise-employed drivers out for a weekend fling. That doesn’t rule out other bodies on the tubers – the odd BMW and Corvette look-alike.

So, what are Murphy’s GT rools?

1. At least 3 pros to carry a weekender. If so, doctors and CEOs are O.K. here.
2. Teams with experience and talent. Some of these are easy to pick out: TRG and Turner Motorsports, for instance. Others aren’t so obvious.
3. Current or former ‘factory’ drivers. They don’t go – or aren’t sent – where they have no chance.

23 Alex Job Baldwin, Burtis, Farnbacher, Pagerey, Ragginger – Porsche GT3
44 Magnus Bleekemolen, Lietz, Potter, Stanton  – Porsche GT3
67 TRG Bergmeister, Long, Neiman, van Overbeek – Porsche GT3
71 TRG Bernhard, Dumas, George, Labonte, Pumpelly – Porsche GT3
94 Turner Auberlen, Dalla Lana, Hand, Said – BMW M6

07 Godstone Ranch Corvette is the Bear’s GT dark horse. Young up-and-comer to watch is Thomas Merrill, Salinas California, Corsa Team PR1 BMW.

Murphy’s Predictions

A smaller field gets less opportunities to hit the favorites, so the good ones will mostly be there at the end. If it rains – and it seems it might – all such bets are off.

Matt Connolly Motorsports will be relevant in Matt Connolly’s mind and among the cogs.

We’ll see more of McDreamy than we do on Grey’s Anatomy.

No one will mention that Krohn Racing is in a dust-up with Lola. Krohn, who shouldn’t want to bend the Lola with few spares (and none in the pipeline) will drive anyway, and bend the Lola.

Sebring and Le Mans will disappear into a parallel universe for the duration of the coverage.

Jack Baldwin and Hurley Haywood, separated at birth in May 1948, will insist senior discounts at Hooters on International Speedway Boulevard. Well, Jack will, anyway.

With only six NASCAR drivers on hand, that story line should be a bit more subdued in this year’s telecast. Those seats are filled by current and former German factory pilots.

Kia Goes Grand Am Racing

When it came time to pick a ‘platform,’ the fast-growing manufacturer ‘passed’ on the Global Leader Green Racing to field a new factory team. It’s particularly interesting that a manufacturer intent on building a new ‘luxury’ image would consider, then reject, the American Le Mans Series.  Wouldn’t it’s market strategy have fit ALMS’ ‘World Class’ image?  Too bad it was abandoned to chase a green strategy.

Perhaps the Braselburger boss has been too busy with alternative energy mucky-mucks to waste time with automobile manufacturers. After leaving Phoenix, he went hobnobbing in Toronto chatting up “alternative fuels” this past weekend.

Follow Murphy’s tweets at http://twitter.com/Murphythebear

As soon as the Bear posted his expectations for the Sebring grid, a chorus of “wait-a-minutes” came in.
As a result, he’s going to downgrade the Salt Lake City prototype from “probable” to “possible,” and upgrade the “No Name Team” Ferrari from “possible” to “possible plus.” (Ok, that’s a new rating – live with it.)
Regardless of his reduced confidence, he hopes that the Zytek makes it to the grid, since he’ll win a Jameson (and his assistant will treated to some fine Dutch brew) at Chicanes if it does. For now, those changes will cut his likely P1 starters to seven. Murphy’s going to keep his expected GT starters at 17, making Sebring’s total grid 29.

Murphy’s Rolex Punting Rools

Last year, the Bear picked five favorites for the Daytona win, and went 1-2-3. Suddenly all the punters are clamoring to know how Murphy does it. Well here’s the Poop, five rules for picking the Rolex (the other two are Bear secrets):

1. Riley only. Are you kidding? The first non-Riley was 15th, eight in class. Domination, baby.
2. Teams you’ve heard of, even if you’ve been in a cave. Ganassi (that’s three in a row), Penske, GAINSCO, Brumos. They have guys who know how to screw down lug nuts.
3. No oil billionaire drivers, no scrawny girls. No drivers with the same name as the team.

Rolex Favorites

Here are Murphy’s by-the-rools five favorites for the 2009 Rolex. Look familiar?
01 Ganassi  Dixon, Montoya, Pruett, Rojas – Lexus / Riley
02 Ganassi  Dixon, Franchitti, Lloyd, Pruett – Lexus / Riley
16 Penske Racing Bernhard,Brisco, Dumas – Porsche / Riley
58 Brumos Racing Donohue, Garcia, Law, Rice – Porsche / Riley
99 GAINSCO   Fogarty, Gurney, Johnson, Vasser – Pontiac / Riley

Murphy’s Predictions

The Bear enjoyed AC’s and Katrina’s so much he made some of his own.

Baring unfixable practice disasters (or rubber checks) four classes will take the green flag: Riley Class – 13; ODP Class – 6; TF Class – 13; Porsche GT3 Cup Class – 17. (ODP = Other Daytona Prototypes; TF = Tube Frame)

With great fanfare, the infield will be closed on race morning after the 5,000 fans and 500 cars for which there is still room have been waved through the tunnel.

The NASCAR-driver storylines will disappear with the near-disappearance of NASCAR drivers. No longer singing “NASCAR über alles,” Grand Am will tout the “international flavor” of the driver field.

No entry with a “gentleman driver” will win overall.

Matt Connolly will win a close contest for the “Most Annoying Team Owner Award.”

The hot paddock rumor will be about JCF’s missing $12 million.

The only mentions of ALMS will be in Boris Said interviews.