The Bear decided to delay Paddock Poop 170 for this important and extremely timely A. C. column.-Murphy-

For the third year, the Bear’s picking five entries likely to contend for the win in the Rolex 24 at Daytona. In 2008, his list of five captured 1, 2, and 3. Last year, they grabbed the top two steps.

Before he picked, Murphy gave away the five rools that will let his friends pick the Daytona Prototype winners, too. Not much has changed, so here they are again:

1. Riley only. The first non-Riley in 2008 was 15th. Last year, a Dallara snuck into 4th, a Crawford into 8th. That’s not enough to change the rool.
2. Teams you’ve heard of. Ganassi won its third in a row in 2008, another of Murphy’s teams,  Brumos won in 2009 – and took third, too. Ganassi was second and fifth, Penske sixth, GAINSCO seventh. The Bear didn’t mention SunTrust, which was fourth; they’ll replace the departed Penske among our picks. Murphy thinks “nicely turned out” counts for a lot. It’s a team that does that.
3. No oil billionaire drivers, no scrawny girls. No drivers with the same name as the team. No brain doctors or heart doctors. In other words, absent an LMS-type ‘gentleman driver rool’ DP is a “pro only need apply” class.

Rolex Favorites

The Bear had no trouble picking four, but his fifth turn out to be ‘a bear,’ so to speak. After Ganassi (2), GAINSCO, and Brumos, it came down to SunTrust Racing, a familiar (and successful) team (see rool 2.) but with a Dallara (rool 1.). It was the SunTrust Dallara that snuck into 4th last year, too. On the other hand, there’s Action Express Racing, a “rookie” team (that runs afoul of rool 2.), while meeting rool 3. (drivers), and rool 1. What to do? The elves told the Bear it was time to do a little research.

A little digging uncovered that Action Express is the ‘second Brumos entry,’ owned by long-time Brumos associate Bob Johnson, with a number Brumos staff and crew, and with drivers Barbosa and Borcheller. So, with good leadership, it might meet rool 2. after all. SunTrust’s 4th was a break-through for the non-Riley Dallara, three of four drivers return – Ricky Taylor (son of team owner Wayne) replaces veteran gentleman Brian Frisselle. Is that an improvement? Was last season’s Dallara break-through a trend or an aberration?

Here are Murphy’s by-the-rools five favorites for the 2010 Rolex. Last year we asked if this ‘Looked familiar?’ This year, it’s ‘Look familiar – again?’

01 Ganassi  Papis, Wilson, Pruett, Rojas – BMW / Riley
02 Ganassi  Dixon, Franchitti, Montoya, McMurray  – BMW / Riley
  9 Action Express Barbosa, Borcheller, Dalziel, Rockenfeller – Porsche / Riley
59 Brumos Donohue, Haywood, Law, Leitzinger, Matos – Porsche / Riley
99 GAINSCO   Fogarty, Gurney, Johnson, Vasser – Chevrolet / Riley

If anything, Ganassi is fielding even better driver lineups. Brumos returns without the drug felon, and with Leitzinger and Matos – a huge upgrade in talent (and sense) if a Bear ever saw one. Two-time Grand Am champion GAINSCO returns with drivers as good as anyone – intent on capturing the prize that’s eluded them. Action Express – as we’ve explained – is ‘Brumos Lite’ with a better roster of pilots.

Murphy makes SunTrust his “dark horse.” Level 5 having morphed into NPN Racing might have made the Bear’s favorites list, until Tucker, the designated rich guy, listed himself in both cars, diluting otherwise stellar driving lineups. If you can figure out which car will not get Tucker’s driving help, pick the other one.

Taking a Flyer on GT with the Bear

The Bear decided it’s time to pay some attention to the GT field. Just in time for the faux Mazdas to drop from contention, now having fallen to second tier teams and too many otherwise-employed drivers out for a weekend fling. That doesn’t rule out other bodies on the tubers – the odd BMW and Corvette look-alike.

So, what are Murphy’s GT rools?

1. At least 3 pros to carry a weekender. If so, doctors and CEOs are O.K. here.
2. Teams with experience and talent. Some of these are easy to pick out: TRG and Turner Motorsports, for instance. Others aren’t so obvious.
3. Current or former ‘factory’ drivers. They don’t go – or aren’t sent – where they have no chance.

23 Alex Job Baldwin, Burtis, Farnbacher, Pagerey, Ragginger – Porsche GT3
44 Magnus Bleekemolen, Lietz, Potter, Stanton  – Porsche GT3
67 TRG Bergmeister, Long, Neiman, van Overbeek – Porsche GT3
71 TRG Bernhard, Dumas, George, Labonte, Pumpelly – Porsche GT3
94 Turner Auberlen, Dalla Lana, Hand, Said – BMW M6

07 Godstone Ranch Corvette is the Bear’s GT dark horse. Young up-and-comer to watch is Thomas Merrill, Salinas California, Corsa Team PR1 BMW.

Murphy’s Predictions

A smaller field gets less opportunities to hit the favorites, so the good ones will mostly be there at the end. If it rains – and it seems it might – all such bets are off.

Matt Connolly Motorsports will be relevant in Matt Connolly’s mind and among the cogs.

We’ll see more of McDreamy than we do on Grey’s Anatomy.

No one will mention that Krohn Racing is in a dust-up with Lola. Krohn, who shouldn’t want to bend the Lola with few spares (and none in the pipeline) will drive anyway, and bend the Lola.

Sebring and Le Mans will disappear into a parallel universe for the duration of the coverage.

Jack Baldwin and Hurley Haywood, separated at birth in May 1948, will insist senior discounts at Hooters on International Speedway Boulevard. Well, Jack will, anyway.

With only six NASCAR drivers on hand, that story line should be a bit more subdued in this year’s telecast. Those seats are filled by current and former German factory pilots.

Kia Goes Grand Am Racing

When it came time to pick a ‘platform,’ the fast-growing manufacturer ‘passed’ on the Global Leader Green Racing to field a new factory team. It’s particularly interesting that a manufacturer intent on building a new ‘luxury’ image would consider, then reject, the American Le Mans Series.  Wouldn’t it’s market strategy have fit ALMS’ ‘World Class’ image?  Too bad it was abandoned to chase a green strategy.

Perhaps the Braselburger boss has been too busy with alternative energy mucky-mucks to waste time with automobile manufacturers. After leaving Phoenix, he went hobnobbing in Toronto chatting up “alternative fuels” this past weekend.

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Forsythe has been rumored to be likely to field one or more Zyteks by year’s end. According to Zytek sources, however, neither of the orders the company has in hand is from the Indy-based team. Still, the expectations for Forsythe run high in Georgia.

Could one of them be Walker Racing? Murphy reported earlier that the former Champ Car team had “proposals out,” and since then he’s been given another reason to believe that Walker expects to be in the ALMS this season.

Dario’s out of a Sprint Cup ride, but not out of his Ganassi contract as far as the Bear knows. If there’s to be any “sports car work” look for it to be in Grand Am. Otherwise, catch the Scot’s act in Nationwide. Next season, who knows?

If van der Steur Racing doesn’t show up at Lime Rock, will the team show up anywhere? ECO Racing hasn’t shown up on the Mid-Ohio entry, either. Probably won’t. Continuing not-so-good news, Black Swan may not make Lime Rock, but are “for sure” at Mid-Ohio. Since BS has Boston connections, it’s a fair bet the team will be very disappointed if it misses the Connecticut track. An indication the builder is struggling?

Soon-to-be-new ALMS drivers in the ALMS have finished 13th , then 12th , in two Atlantics seasons, and won the Star Mazda Senior Division, respectively. There’s no indication Audi fears the loss of its class hegemony.

It’s been clear to the rest of the paddock since Sebring that AGR was underperforming and its drivers were part of that. Much of the performance at Sebring was Marco’s doing. A while ago the Bear heard that AGR was in the Acura dawghouse. He reported the rumor – without naming the team, though many of you figured that out – back in May. Does this improve that situation? If Marco drives like he did at Sebring all that could change in a hurry – if it hasn’t already.

Is the Grand Am gravy train about to grind to a halt? If DP buyers are expecting continuing sweetheart deals, they might be disappointed. 1.7 billion in SunTrust write-offs and write-downs says so.

Dome-Toyota-Dome-Honda-Dome-Nissan. Selling customer cars isn’t Dome’s business model. They said so themselves. They also have written that it’s the company’s objective to “become the world’s leading racing constructor.” Dome’s business is contract engineering, design, and production of race cars. So, they’ll build you something if you contract them to do so. They’ll build for themselves. RFH was an anomaly that Dome says was a “substitute” for Dome’s own participation at Le Mans in 2006. An enigma wrapped in a mystery? Not really. Murphy’s bottom line: Dome will race it’s own car, but it will not sell and support it. Call it marketing. (Dome calls it “a demonstration.”) However, if you are a manufacturer and want to sign a contract for a car with your name on it…

Is the SunTrust write-down a big deal? Corvette fans should consider that GMAC, a sponsor of Corvette Racing. GM wrote down the value of its 49% share of GMAC to the tune of $1.45 billion in April. So the total GMAC write-off of nearly $3 billion makes SunTrust look pretty good. Then again, GMAC affects the future of one ALMS team. Trouble at SunTrust could affect most of the DP field.

The Green Challenge’s purpose is to attract participants, not fans. Good thing, too, since higher math is hardly a spectator sport. Perhaps the Green Challenge can bring the Mathematics Association of America on board as a title sponsor. The MAA sanctions the wildly popular American Mathematics Competitions (AMC), so calculating GREEP should be a snap.