Porsche announced a prototype to race at Le Mans in 2014. That took even the Bear by surprise. Oh, there had been rumblings, but Murphy – and just about everyone else – filed them away for future reference; what debt-burdened Porsche does with a few hundred million Euros is not (regardless of protestations) independent of Volkswagen Group in general and – if in racing – of Audi in particular. Nor is it this time.

Since when has Porsche announced a program three years before its launch? How about never. Since when has Porsche fielded a car without knowing it would be capable of winning? Not in Murphy’s memory. How likely is Porsche – a company that insists on continuing to race the rear-engine layout 911 because that fits its marketing objectives – to field a diesel-powered prototype? Not in this lifetime.

How likely is Audi to continue to field a diesel prototype that might be beaten by Porsche? When that happened in the ALMS, the Porsche threat wasn’t serious in the first year of three, Porsche grabbed the brass ring, winning overall in 2007, and Audi took back the season overall championship in 2008. Then Audi left. Don’t forget they were independent companies then. Murphy’s friends at Last Turn Clubhouse awarded the one really important prototype championship in 2007 and 2008. Here are the results: 2007, 2008

What the Porsche announcement really does is begin to validate what we’ve been hearing from multiple sources: that Audi is headed out of sports car prototype racing. Only a few that follow this sport noticed that Colin Kolles is headed out of F1’s Hispania Racing (HRT). (Plus the team’s owner convicted of fraud, only to be replaced less than two weeks later by the third owner in its short history.)

Some in F1 say that Kolles is acting as Audi cat’s paw, and when he soon takes a position in Williams F1 along with his buddy (another Audi ally), Dorothy’s-Dog Red-Riding-Hood’s-Nemesis (a classic Murphy-ism, but an easy one), that presages a move by Audi on Williams.

Big Bad, who now has an equity position in the publically-traded Williams, quickly denied Williams needs “a great fireman to rescue it from collapse,” just the sort of narrow, slightly-off-topic reply that leaves Murphy still wondering what’s afoot.

How does the recent Renault/Williams engine deal fit this? When we checked after that announcement, no one was backing off the story. The engine deal is for just two years – 2012 and 2013 – with an option for a third. That clears the way for a “new rules” Audi F1 engine, and for the introduction by Porsche of a new Le Mans, coincidentally (or not) scheduled for 2014.

The recent FIA tie-up with the ACO for the World Endurance Championship doesn’t end with a championship sanction; it will soon include common – or close enough – engine rules.

The Cat

Though Nick Wirth’s involvement remains uncertain, the rest of the Jaguar LMP story is pretty solid, including the involvement of John Piper, (XJR 14 and Reynard) along with Rod Benoist and Jerry Pyman, both former TWR Jaguar hands. This is a project headed for the WEC – likely not before 2013. The back story here is that this project exists in substantial part because Coventry is fed up with the failed ALMS GT program, which is on “contract life-support,” headed for the dustbin as soon as that deal expires, reportedly after the 2012 season.

Whither the American Le Mans Series?

There’s never been more paddock buzz about the future of the series. The key word is “change,” and like its use in politics, the key question (sometimes overlooked in the excitement) is “What change?”

A week or so ago, Gary Horrocks, who’s covered the American Le Mans Series over the past decade for dailysportscar.com, penned a commentary at DSC titled “What’s Next for ALMS?”

In part, he writes, “Some things never change, but change is coming…Change for the ALMS is a complete unknown at this point. Some say it won’t be around at all. I’m not sure if I’d go that far, but it is apparent that changes are coming. They almost have to.  Will the changes mean a complete step away from the ACO dictated regulations? Time will tell, but if they do, all I can say is that it’s about time.  Since the series essentially kept ACO type events afloat through the 2000’s, the French management have done nothing but dump on their American “partners”.

He concludes: “If the ALMS is to thrive or even survive, maybe it is time to seriously look at their past and towards their future and re-examine their relationship with the ACO. Any future directions and changes must be done with consideration towards the presence of the Grand Am. It’s not an easy situation to be in, but it looks as it is indeed time for change. The next few months will likely prove to be interesting, beyond whatever happens on track.”

Some of you may say that reads like little more than idle speculation, but Murphy being a bit of an expert on both idle speculation and on DSC (he was more or less in charge of Idle Speculation at that publication from July 2005 to April 2006), the Bear takes such ruminations quite seriously. In short, Gary’s commentary doesn’t make it into print unless there’s some serious angst behind it, and Murphy’s hearing many of the same rumbling.

The tone of that paddock noise is not whether there will be significant change, but when and what that change will be. The lid on this stuff in Braselburg is as tight as it has ever been (that’s not a really high bar, actually), but here are some of the possibilities being knocked around this the paddock:

ACO “Trial Separation?”

The Series will modify its rules to move further away from an ACO clone than it ever has. A single LMP class is possible, as is an “open” GT class. The ACO divorce rumor is so pervasive that it’s also thought in some quarters that Braselburg is considering  bringing the Professional Sports Car Racing moniker back. A significant split from the ACO might actually require such a move. Murphy’s been digging in the closet for his old IMSA hat. He’s got a Camel GT hat, too, but that’s probably against the law.

(More) Open GT?

That Open GT class is interesting because that’s the only way (except “unclassified” as will be the case this season) The Don’s beloved Abruzzi will be able to race. It’s suggested that the Abruzzi could be homologated, including the required 25 road cars (though building and selling are different propositions), but there are now no plans to do so. The previously-rumored homologation project is now on hold. An open – or “more” open – GT would also allow the series access to many more race cars than the current rather restrictive – and expensive – ACO GTE rules. And really, The Don got into all this because he wanted to race a car; the Series was little more than an afterthought to make that happen.

One Prototype Class?

This makes some sense, given that there aren’t enough cars out there to make up two classes, say nothing of three. Of course, that’s been true for about a half decade, and the Series actually did it for a single season (2010). How it gets done this time, with LMPC in the mix, the Bear has no idea, but that’s one of the rumors.

More “Spec” Classes?

A rumor directly in conflict with the single prototype/open GT stories is an expansion of spec racing in an effort to continue down the path of “affordable racing.” Perhaps the LMP1 and 2 classes are combined, and LMPC is left intact? Or LMP1 and 2 go away, leaving LMPC – or something similar – as the premier class? Grand Am, anyone?

Shorter Schedule?

The schedule will be shortened and compressed. This year’s huge Le Mans break will be shortened, though it’s hard for Murphy to see how that happens, especially since the loss-of-Long Beach rumor persists. (The fact there’s a long term contract in place for that race is irrelevant; if the parties want out, they’ll get out.)

WEC in North America

There will be two WEC races in North America, Sebring and Petit Le Mans. There will be one WEC race in North America, Sebring. There will be one WEC race in North America, Petit Le Mans. There will be one WEC  race in North America, Austin. You get the idea, don’t you? However, there is some rationale that attaches to the Austin idea. The FIA has a vested interest in making the Austin track financially viable to ensure its F1 date. That became tougher with the compromise the promoters had to make with the Austin City Council – effectively increasing their financial burden.

Management?

Further senior management departures are rumored. There’s even a bet in the paddock that there will be big moves before September 1. Murphy sources who might previously have defended the decisions of the Braselburgers have recently turned negative. Will “The Boss” be amongst the casualties? There are rumors. Perhaps Murphy will apply for the job.

The Wilting Core

So why all the turbulence now? Certainly the advent of the WEC is a big factor. It provides a “big stage” for the ALMS’ traditional core constituents – the manufacturers. It’s often said the “privateers are the backbone of sportscar endurance racing,” but there is no doubt the American Le Mans Series was built on the back of Audi, Porsche, BMW, Ferrari, Corvette – and of course Michelin.

Prototype WEC Programs

It was the only game in town for the big boys that needed some place to go with their expensive machinery beyond that “one-off” race in France. No longer. Even ten-cent players like Scott Tucker are taking their racing – and cash – to the ILMC-soon-to-be WEC. Audi’s long since gone there. Porsche’s future LMP1 is not identified in any way with the ALMS, and even if Penske gets the deal (as it is widely believed in the paddock he will), it will be another WEC program. As Murphy explains in this Poop, Jaguar’s prototype will be a WEC entry, and will correspond with the end of Jaguar in the ALMS. The only sign of a new ALMS prototype program is the Tarleton’s Signature Motorsports, which recently announced another change of plans: to P1. Murphy’s not aware of anything beyond talk with any manufacturers (like maybe a contract), though. It’s way beyond late to build a new car for any part of the 2011 season, and nothing the Bear has heard suggests buying something used, so this entertainment is “to be continued” in 2012.

GT: BMW

BMW has a lot invested in the future of DTM, both worldwide and in this country in association with Grand Am. Look for an increase in BMW’s Grand Am presence. Murphy heard second hand from within RLR that, “No one at ALMS has given the slightest indication that they are either concerned about our (RLR) going or interested in our staying.” That’s against persistent rumors that BMW is on the way out after this season or next.

GT: Ferrari

Ferrari officially announced a Grand Am GT racer. They’re going to make sure they’ve got competitive teams over there. Look for entries before the end of the current season. Will Risi Competizione move? What if Maranello asked Giuseppe to field a team? He’s been there before. Michael Waltrip Racing is reluctantly headed to Grand Am, convinced the ALMS offers too much risk and too little upside for the investment. It’s no secret that Scott Sharp would like to take his Extreme Speed Motorsports to IndyCar.

GT: Porsche

Porsche will be in ALMS as long as the series – or its successor – exists. That’s the Porsche way. They have race cars – and plenty of racers – to fit whatever format is there. The question is whether Flying Lizard or some other team with significant factory support remains. The Lizards have run at Daytona, most recently with a Daytona Prototype. As with Risi, they’ll go where the racing is, something to keep in mind with just about any team; there’s really not much loyalty. Racers like to race.

GT: Corvette

There’s potential for trouble ahead at Corvette, or at least a big decision. There is very strong support for the factory program within GM’s highest management ranks but does it make sense to continue racing in the USA if there’s nobody to race against? They’ve been in that position and nobody wants to do it again. If the ALMS moves solidly toward a privateer, open GT field, as is rumored, that is exactly the position in which Corvette is likely to find itself; race nearly alone in a depleted “pro” category or beat up on an amateur field.

But the WEC isn’t certain, either. North America funds the racing program and it’ll be a tough sell for them to fund a program that spends 80 or 90-percent of its time outside of North America. It isn’t likely that Chevrolet Europe has the resources to fund the factory team alone, so perhaps it becomes a joint effort?  A Murphy source says, “There are various good outcomes – ALMS somehow gets a second wind, GM finds ways to fund a WEC factory program, etc. but there are also obviously various bad outcomes – ALMS goes away, ALMS goes in a direction that GM won’t participate in, etc. I think that at this point there are too many unknowns and it’s too early in the complex process for Chevy to know what it’s doing next year.”

Murphy’s Favorite Topic

The one bright spot within GT is – oddly enough – the Abruzzi. Homologation aside, The Don is determined to race the car, and Prototype Technology Group has been working hard to make that happen. Those who dismissed 32-year-old Swede Edward Sandström as a “rent-a-ride” badly missed the mark. Sandström has been a regular in the FIA GT3 championship in Europe, and partnered Tommy Milner to a win at the 24 Hours of Dubai this year, giving PTG good insight on his driving skills. There have been some problems with this program (and Murphy’s no fan of the styling, to put it mildly), but he doesn’t think The Don’s entry will be the GT backmarker at Mosport. This time it’s possible as many as four entries could finish in its wake. For more on Edward, go to Speedhunters

The Television Sucks

The Series mismanaged its television coverage for years – it was the product that sucked all along, losing viewers nearly every season – leading to the inability to make a deal for 2011. The spin was “new media,” but that’s nonsense, of course. Murphy sources tell him that the Series went shopping for a renewal of the kind of coverage it had in previous years, and couldn’t find a taker. So it got jobbed by ESPN and had to swallow and spin.

The current media package is even worse than it looks, according to those who know the details. It’s badly underfunded, with a single producer to cover a workload that has normally required multiple staff. The Bear was told t-race staffing is kindly described as lean, a shoe-string operation. The production company has not changed, but observers could see the lack of resources in the product that came out of Lime Rock. Today, the ALMS posted this on its house website:

“Thanks to a groundbreaking and comprehensive digital and television broadcast package with ABC and ESPN, the Series boasts a 71 percent increase in the number of U.S. households that have watched ALMS events than at the same point in 2010.”

They’re still a bit math challenged over there in Braselburg, apparently confusing web hits with households. But whatever they’re doing it’s apples and oranges, chalk and cheese. It’s just plain not credible that the cobbled-together 5-inch picture on my computer is a more popular way to watch racing than live, full-length, full-screen on my television. Chuck Farrell covered the topic nicely in”Chuck Checks the Maths.” More importantly, amongst Murphy’s sources not a single individual responsible for funding or fielding a racing team believes it.

In its early years, the American Le Mans Series media coverage was a contributor to its value. When it started down hill, it became a liability. Without marketing value to manufacturers, the series has to change. The premise on which it was built is gone.

The Andy Lally Challenge

With so little going on in the American Le Mans Series, Murphy has had limited opportunity to bring his readers up to date on the Andy Lally Challenge.

First, the Bear announces that Andy has won NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Rookie of the Year. No contest, wrapped it up. Way to go, Andy!
Murphy last updated the Challenge after Dover, where Andy’s purse brought his season’s total winnings to  $1,020,811. Murphy figures the American Le Mans field won $126,000 at Lime Rock, bringing the season total to   $1,046,000, including his estimate of the privateer bonuses to be calculated and paid at the end of the season. (Teams that have been classified as “factory,” or “factory supported” are not paid purse money. The next privateer(s) does/do not “move up.)

Andy’s first big set-back was at Charlotte, where he failed to qualify for the Coca Cola 600. Since then, however, he collected finishes of 31st at Kansas, 32nd at Pocono, 36th at Michigan, 35th at Infineon, 27th at the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona, 32nd at Kentucky and 28th at New Hampshire. Andy’s winnings over those seven events were $588,070, bringing his season’s total to $1,608,881.

“So am I, buddy, so am I. Sure. But not over the phone. Can you meet me?” was the response from NASCAR’s favorite local scribe.

“Sure, where?” asked the Bear.

“I hear you’re in town on business, I’m near Hooter’s on International Speedway…across the street, actually. Can you meet me there?” asked A.C.

“I’m close,” said the Bear, with a grin (Hooter’s in Daytona Beach is one of Murphy’s favorite places.) “When?”

A.C.: “About 15 minutes.”

Murphy: ‘You’re on, my friend.”

The Bear got there first, renewing acquaintances – and getting hugs. By the time he’d ordered a Warsteiner and some wings (Murphy’s been a Warsteiner fan since the “German Budweiser” sponsored the GT1 championship in the late ’90′s), a shadowy figure with a turned-up collar and a turned-down hat was sidling up to the table. It was A.C.

“What the hell…” blurted the Bear.

“Shhhhh…” from the muffled figure.

Murphy: “A.C?”

“Yes. Hold it down…if someone sees me…” whispered A.C.

“Hell, A.C., you’re right across the street from the World Center of Racing in a trench coat, talking to a stuffed animal, and you think no one will notice?” asked Murphy.

“You might be right, Murphy, but they’re used to odd characters around here…I mean, there’s J.C.,” the Daytona Beach News-Journal’s crack scribe let his voice trail off, aware he’d said something that could, well…cost him his media pass, the key to the executive wash room at the World Center, and frequent luncheon spreads…life is good, he thought to himself. Murphy’s voice brought him out of his reverie.

“So, about the stories I’m hearing…” asked the Bear, leaving the question hanging.

A.C.: “Ah yes. Well it’s true. The Miller thing, that is.”

Murphy was aghast. “What, why, how…” he sputtered. He’d already written that such a thing was unlikely.

“One question at a time, old friend,” retorted A.C.

“First, what: They haven’t done it yet, but it’s serious…hot and heavy, you might say. They’re talking to the Don about grabbing the whole shebang. It really is a mess over there – as I’ve been trying to tell you ALMS Cool Aid drinkers for over a year.” A.C. had that ‘I-know-more-than-you’ look on his face, like you get from big-time print scribes, from Miller, and over at motorsport.com.

“So, if Miller was right, how come he’s kind of backed off it now? asked Murphy.

“Geez, you are a dense bear, aren’t you?! Miller sometimes engages mouth just a little bit before brain. He knew this time he was risking the gravy train, so he clammed up. But this is a good as the ‘Tony-on-the-bricks’ thing, trust me,” explained A.C.

“Why, then?” asked the Bear.

A.C. looked at Murphy like he had couch stuffing for brains. “Because it’s there,” he said (quoting Sir Edmond). “Look. Who went after NHRA? Who bought bike racing? Who created Grand Am?” A.C. put up his hand to quiet the sputtering bear. “Who?” Jim-Bob. Brian-Bob. J.C.-Bob. Control. They want it all. Besides, ALMS and that Elan thing are pretty much in the poor house. The Don doesn’t own a big chuck of the Irish drug biz any more, so today’s J & J thing doesn’t do anything big for his cash flow, either.”

“But what does NASCAR get they want?” asked the Bear. “I mean, they won’t run P1 and P2 against their protoguppies, will they?”

“Of course not….and it’s prototurtles, not guppies,  you stuffing-for-brains-bear,” the famous scribe said, endearingly, to his old friend. “But think of the other stuff: three tracks, Sebring being the prize that Jim-Bob’s always wanted. Star Mazda, the little BMW’s. Control of sports car racing. They’ll cherry-pick the events for the gup…er ah, turtle…damn, now you’ve got me doing it…those beautiful Daytona Prototypes. The rest gets dumped. Including that dump in the Georgia hills…ever see Deliverance, Murphy?”

“But A.C., no one goes to Grand Am races,” exclaimed the Bear.

“So what?” responded A.C. “They will when that’s all there is, won’t they?”

“OK, how, then?” asked the Bear.

“Cash,” said A.C., “something the Don needs right now.”

“But, I hear Grand Am isn’t doing all that well either,” said Murphy.”

“Ah, do I have to educate you all the time? chided A.C. “At the risk of repeating myself…’So what?’ Haven’t I told you to look out when NASCAR grabbed the reins at Grand Am over the winter? More money than god, of course. If they want to spend it on keeping Chip in Grand Am rather than keeping Richard in Cup, well, then that’s their business, ain’t it. And ol’ A.C. ain’t got no doubt of Brian-Bob and Jim-Bob’s business sense. No siree!”

“Ganassi gets…?” Murphy sputtered.

“Second car, the one with Kyle Busch in it this weekend,” smiled A.C. “How – or why – does that happen on Chip’s nickel? It doesn’t, that’s what. It does prove Jim-Bob and Brian-Bob are serious about all this, though.”

“How serious?” interjected the Bear.

“Big money serious, said A.C, “as in over half of DP regulars get some cash-type, ah, incentive, to keep going.”

“Geez,” murmured Murphy, “that’s kind-of “T.G.-like. Who else?”

“Ever wonder how nice guys in a little Daytona Beach race shop go from a single ancient tube frame crapping out on lap ten once a year in February to a pair of full-schedule DP’s? It ain’t because they’ve been cultivating “grass roots motorsports,” A.C. said, chortling over his own joke, “although Florida’s a good place for that kind of importing business, isn’t it? Hey, getting those Coyotes from Cheever, paying Pratt & Miller for development, that takes serious scratch, ya know?”

“I’ll take that as good news,” said Murphy, wryly.

“Brumos doing it all alone? That’s more J.C. than the Porsche dealer, for sure. I know a rent-a-ride driver who’s come up short for this season. Jim-Bob kicked in. Team owner’s not really happy, says ‘If he’s going to put out money, then send it my way and I’ll hire the driver I want.’

“But if the Cup teams are suffering, aren’t they pissed off at money going to Grand Am?” asked the Bear.

“Of course they are,” said A.C. “But what are they going to say? They’ve been on a gravy train, and they aren’t going to upset that apple cart. There’s some trouble, though. I hear a couple of Grand Am teams – one “biggie” included – may be on the way out anyway. At the end of the season it could get pretty nasty, but of course if ALMS is gone…see? They’re business geniuses across the street…”

A.C. suddenly remembered where he was, gave the Bear a quick – but manly – squeeze, said, “one more thing, “If – as is possible – the Nationwide taxi race gets rained out, then it clears, the DP’s just might have to go home without turning a wheel. You didn’t hear anything here,” then quietly slipped out the door. A moment later the Bear heard the rumbling tones of a V8 – but a V8 rarely heard in this World Center of Racing.

“What’s with the wheels?” wondered Murphy.

(to be continued)